Mr. Shahab Mafi, Dr. Amirhasan Kakaee, Dr. Behrooz Mashhadi,
Volume 16, Issue 3 (9-2026)
Abstract
This article introduces a scalable framework based on definition of probable future driving scenarios originated from multidisciplinary policies aimed at transport sustainability. The generation of realistic driving cycles based on recorded real microtrips is used for simulation of carbon emissions in future driving scenarios defined by target characteristic parameters. The suggested framework identifies possible contradicting multidisciplinary policies, highlighting the interdisciplinary requirement of policies for sustainable transportation in well-to-wheel life cycle. Battery electric vehicles were found to be unsustainable in regions with less than 30% share of renewable sources in electric grid, but substantial 25% reduction of carbon emissions is achieved with 50% share of renewables. The stability of clean power generation with different environmental conditions is highlighted. Emerging low carbon fuels, sustainable urbanization and less intensive driving habits would keep internal combustion engines as a dominant powertrain of choice in future fleets of private vehicles.
